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The Jeter Bunt
Updated 3 months, 2 weeks ago
Source: http://joeposnanski.com/
There’s a wonderful new iPhone app — put together, as I understand it, by Derek over at U.S.S. Mariner — called 2nd Guesser. Basically, it’s like this: You can punch in any game situation and the app will give you various win and run expectancies. More, it will let you punch in any scenario and tell you if the managerial move on your mind is a good idea or bad.
For instance, say, it’s the first inning inning, nobody out, runners on first and second. Is this ...
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Showing 75 relevant reactions out of 79.
Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » The Jeter Bunt http://tinyurl.com/y89hlnd
@Glenn et al
Cameron only said that bunting on the first or second strike was not a bad decision. He agreed that the third bunt was a mistake.
Good analysis on Jeter, and I think it applies to a lot of other players. For instance, Varitek’s role on the Red Sox hasn’t declined because he’s lost his intangible leadership qualities. It’s because he can’t hit. And I’m a huge Chase Utley fan and absolutely love the heads-up plays he makes that no one else seems to think of. But it wouldn’t amount to nearly ... See all content
I get annoyed when people think of all bunts as intentional sacrifices. Bunting for a base hit is very different than a sacrifice. It’s something that isn’t done enough anymore, even in these OBP times.
Jeter was definitely bunting for a hit with 2 strikes. If it was fair and down the third baseline, it would’ve been a hit. With the third baseman moving way back with two
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Come on Joe — breaking down improperly obtained film of the opposing team is the secret to Belichick’s success. Everyone knows that.
But Siberian, as I recall, Freddie P. did that at Fenway. Maybe playing in that ballpark his whole career instead of the cavernous Royals Stadium would have done wonders for his HR totals.
Yeah, but it finally paid off for Patek at the end of his career when he hit 3 HRs in a game with the Angels.
I still think that is one of THE most remarkable achievements in baseball history. That should be your next book, Joe. :0)
Only Joe could get me to read 2500+ words telling me how wonderfully human and yet, still better than me Derek Jeter is.
The frustrating brillance of the Yanks is this: even when they do something that makes the casual fan say “that was dumb”, they still win. Had that maneuver been tried by the Phils, Angels, Sox, Cards, or any other elite team, they would have promptly given up
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So after game 4, does Johnny Damon take the Title as Smartest Player in the Clubhouse for the Yankees?
Quite a Jeterism by JD last night.
Joe Words…you mean “jowords?”
When A-Rod hit his home run off the camera and they were waiting for the umpires to sort it out, I think Timmy actually said, “we’re going to have to see if the ball was on it’s way down when it hit the camera.” Are you kidding me??? FTM
Michael (in NYC) @ 55
And I find you to be very perceptive.
Just make sure when those aliens arrive that they’re kept well clear of soccer. If they catch a sight of that we’ll be vapourised within seconds.
Just wanted to mention this, everyone keeps talking about Manuel deciding to start Blanton over Lee, etc. etc…Lee and Blanton were starting Games 4 and 5 no matter what. The only question was which order. The game this would REALLY effect is Game 7 if it goes that far, as you have to pitch Cole “I’m mentally tired and want next year to come quicker” Hamels instead of Cliff Lee ... See all content
Clearly Jeter set up the rally with that clutch strikeout.
A lot of jeteration in the ninth inning of Game 4 while Damon and Rodriguez (and Posada) were the real heroes.
I’m conflicted.
This is one of my favorite things you’ve written, but, I’m also a Red Sox fan reading about Derek Jeter.
The world is topsy-turvy… up is down, down is up.
@Matt – if it’s not the ninth inning, you want to maximize run expectancy. Sacrifice bunting does not do that.
“A bunt never increases the chances of scoring more than one run and, since the team is behind by two or more, it needs more than one run. Ahead of behind by more than one run? A bunt is never a good idea.”
This is true if your game is in the 9th inning, any other time the bunt can be helpful. Eat the elephant one bite at a time.
Trey Hillman thought the 2 strike bunt was an excellent idea.
@Graphite–I think “A Warmer Wisconsin” was the B-side to a Hootie and the Blowfish single. I never made the New Zealand connection until now.
Graphite has been commenting on this blog a long time; I tend to find him a classy fellow as well. Knows a lot about horses. That’s worth something.
I just read a book that featured another manager who tended to take pitchers out as soon as they did something he didn’t like. It was a good freaking book. I only wish the blogger responsible for this site would give people a link
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Jeter and fans know exactly why he’s revered in NY and hated so much everywhere else.
Torre knew what made him great, Girardi though, he’s an overmanaging dolt.
He seems to be out there with a misplaced chip on his shoulder needing to micromanage in a way Torre never could. It’s hurting more than it helps.
Like tonight, Hughes should’ve never been
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Barack Obama @43
What you have to understand about me is that I’m from New Zealand (a warmer Wisconsin if you will), which makes me quasi-British — except with better teeth and eating habits. And that makes me a stickler for fair play.
The coughing comment? I saw a chap who was being berated on all sides for a momentary lapse and thought I’d put in a good word. Remind
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There is nothing wrong with the bunt. With Mariano on the mound, the Yankees don’t need a multiple run inning. They just need one run. That’s why a bunt made sense. Sure, Jeter is more likely to get a hit than Damon or Tex, but all Damon would need is a sac fly.
I agree that the extremes of adulation Jeter has received (and yes, he has been made a legend in his own time) can be annoying (and especially to non-Yankee fans). Yet the backlash is no less unrealistic. Objectively (and as Joe acknowledges), he is a hall of fame quality shortstop who has now had a hall of fame career. He has not been the best shortstop in baseball every year, but he has consistently ... See all content
@32 Nick L, who’s taking 30, Dark Side of the Mood to task: I agree that it’s an exaggeration to say that if Jeter played his whole career in KC or Pittsburgh, he would be perceived as nowhere near HOF-worthy. But I don’t think it’s an epic fail. If he were a career Pirate or Royal, would he really beanointed a “no-doubt, first-ballot” HOFer? Or would he be viewed ... See all content
Funny thing about apple seeds. It is definitely a fact that apple seeds become apple trees. But most apple seeds do not become apple trees.
That’s not the same kind of fact as the fact that it is wrong to ask Jeter to bunt with runners on first and second, nobody out, and the Yankees leading by two runs.
Freddie Patek: 1972 All-Star
Line: 212/280/276
Great post on Jeter worship by Joe Posnanski - http://3.ly/2xj And a defense of the Jeter bunt from FanGraphs - http://3.ly/zKR
Gotcha Jay. Poor reading comprehension on my part.
[...] Joe Posnanski took Jeter to task for the bunt. Because Posnanski has a way with words and images, take a read: Jeter would later [...]
Isn’t it possible that Jeter was mad that Girardi wanted him to bunt in that situation? Couldn’t it be something like Reggie Jackson when Billy Martin ordered him to bunt back in ‘78? Reggie was so mad that he bunted for a 3rd strike even though Martin had taken the sign off. I guess a team first guy like Jetes would never do such a thing.
Would he?
sasho1 @ 40–
those weren’t actually stats for hitting with an 0-2 count. they were stats for hitting once the count has reached 0-2, which includes just what you said. and obviously the analysis was marginally limited. hence the mea culpa.
but the overall point is this–pretty much EVERYBODY is bad on an 0-2 count. People are still lousy on a 1-2 count. And generally
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35: Graphite: “Nothing to do with the bunt — which was obviously weird — but in one at bat Jeter coughed . . . and took his hand off the bat to bring his fist up to his mouth to smother it.
My reaction was Wow! How many baseballers would be so polite as to think of those about them in that situation.
Say what you like about him but the man is a class act.”
Isn’t
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sacrificing his body and running full force after that foul ball
I assume this is the play on Trot Nixon in the 12th inning on July 1, 2004. Not that it really matters, but it was a fair ball. The play-by-play at baseballreference agrees:
Popfly: SS (Deep 3B)
And here’s a picture:
http://home.comcast.net/~john458/Jeter1.htm
Wanna stick up for Belichick, sort of, and say I doubt he thinks his handling of the media is a big part of his success. I think Nitpicker came closer when he noted that the media can do little to help him win, so he doesn’t pull punches. You should know, though, that it has a lot to do with the questions he gets. Mike Reiss’s questions, for example, usually get respectful answers, from ... See all content
@7, 23
Sure, it was an 0-2 count at that moment, but putting up Jeter’s career stats with an 0-2 count is only marginally useful — the count could have been 0-2 on its way to being 2-2 or 3-2. Only by attempting to bunt did he ensure that the 0-2 pitch would be the final one.
I think we’ve reached the point where Jeter is properly appreciated by most intelligent
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Actually, I will say this though, I don’t know that it’s really true that the sac bunt is ALWAYS bad when a team is down by, say, 2 runs. I hate the sac bunt in general, but picture this situation, I’ll use the Yanks as an example. Game 5 comes along. Phillies lead 3-1 in the top of the 7th. Melky Cabrera and Jose Molina somehow, against all odds, manage to reach base. First and second ... See all content
Jeter has essentially become the legend of Derek Jeter. His identity is effectively that of the archetypal hero. He has transcended himself. He is the perfect postmodern protagonist.
I use the term “hypothe-bet” for what you call a “mockabet”.
It was dumb, dumb, dumb, insanely dumb. The only thing I will say though, is I saw some speculation that he was trying to bunt for a hit on the 0-2 count (not before, that was clearly a sacrifice), figuring the Phillies weren’t expecting it.
It’s still dumb. It was insanely stupid to ask him to bunt in the first place, and it was even stupider to try to bunt with two strikes and
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Nothing to do with the bunt — which was obviously weird — but in one at bat Jeter coughed . . . and took his hand off the bat to bring his fist up to his mouth to smother it.
My reaction was Wow! How many baseballers would be so polite as to think of those about them in that situation.
Say what you like about him but the man is a class act.
Yes, THANK YOU. The play wasn’t just stupid, it was beyond that.
I’d give him even less credit: I saw his bunt with two strikes as ostentatious.
He’s like a guy who drags an old lady across the street so that everyone can see what an awesome guy he is (even though the old lady lives in the opposite direction). It was Peyton Manning’s “I’m trying
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@#7: If, as you say, “good bunters generally reach on 40-50% of their bunts,” why wouldn’t good bunters just bunt EVERY time up, and bat .400-.500?
Something tells me your numbers are off.
DarkSide: Fail. Very big fail. One might even say “epic”….
Here’s some homework. Find out how many HOFers play shortstop; then find out how many are better offensive players than Jeter. Assume Jeter is among the five worst MLB defensive shortshops every year. He’s still an easy HOF choice. Nobody, not the most defensive-statistic-obsessed Yankee hater, disagrees
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You know, I’ve seen a lot of Yankee games since I’ve lived in NY most of the time Jeter’s been a big leaguer… and that was the most perplexing at bat I’ve ever seen him have. I was like, “What am I missing here? The Yanks must know something I don’t, because this just does not seem remotely reasonable for Jeter to bunt in a World Series game…up 2 runs ... See all content
If Derek Jeter had played in Kansas City or Pittsburgh his entire career his perception would be nowhere near HOF worthy. He’s a good player (offensively); not a Hall of Fame player. Spend almost every season in the playoffs, play for the most famous team in baseball, in the largest media market in the world, and perception gets skewed.
@JPosnanski #Bunt dumb at 0-0. Park IS better as reliever (http://bit.ly/2WRsHh) and U need editor (http://bit.ly/JVqJc) but URcorrect! #ff
@23 “And yeah, I know my analysis largely sucks. But I’m the kind of guy that has two portraits of myself as a centaur over my bed, so I put it up anyway.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
From baseball analysts.com (click above to read the full article):
“Over the past couple of decades baseball analysts have seemingly discredited the bunt in all but the most obvious situations. Much of their evidence is based on the use of an overall run expectation table that reveals a loss of run potential even with a successful sacrifice. These overall expected runs tables, however
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Maybe Jeter wanted to make sure Mariano got a save. Don’t make it a 4- or 5-run lead.
Joe,
I love that you posted this. When I saw the play with my buddy, I couldn’t believe it. Today, though, I almost forgot about it. Thanks for reminding me. Anyway, I gotta run… I’m going to the Bob Dylan concert that starts in 25 minutes.
See ya,
Bobby A
how ironic is it that FanGraphs has now had 2 posts in the last 3 days [. . .] that directly contradict the automated message in their own app.
The app in question here is Derek Zumsteg’s “2nd Guesser” app, which isn’t affiliated with Fangraphs.
Terrific piece by @JPosnanski about the ridiculous Jeter bunt. The shoutout to @milhous is a great bonus. http://3.ly/sJE
Didn’t The Book show us that there are times when bunting is the correct call? All those definitive statement at the beginning of this post bother me.
There are a few times when bunting is the correct call. But, as Joe (in agreement with the Iphone app) says, those few times do not include the occasions when up or down more than 1 run. (Honestly, don’t people *read*?).
…ummm
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unting with two strikes and a Hall of Famer-in-waitin’ like Jeter up sounds ridiculous…even if the count is 0-2, the worst hitting counts possible. but let’s say there are runners on first and second, no outs, the kind of situation where managers often think, “dang. sure would be nice if them runners were on second ‘n third instead. mebbe he oughta bunt.”
let’s
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#10 JIK2:
Well, few write articles about ANYTHING like Joe, but people write articles about guys bunting with two strikes, yeah. I wrote one on Jhonny Peralta (as part of a larger game recap, linked above) about how it not only boggled my mind, but how doubly preposterous it was because Eric Wedge felt forced to defend him as a “good bunter” (which is demonstratably is not).
I
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Regarding Belichickism. I’m reminded of what Bill said about Rogers Hornsby, who thought that his success was based on not smoking, not drinking, eating lots of steak, not going to movies, etc. and wanted all his players to do the same.
@ #10 JIK2 – So, it’s fascinating that someone writes an article for the sole purpose of tearing down this great man…and oh, by the way, you agree with him. Never mind the fact that Joe refers to him a “great” and half dozen times and a Hall Of Famer.
I have little doubt that if Chase Utley had tried to bunt in the exact same situation, Joe would have mentioned
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Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by OldHossRadbourn: A wonderful article (http://bit.ly/JVqJc), except for the fact that it’s totally wrong. Thank goodness I played in the pre-Euclidean era….
Brilliantly insightful post. Thanks, Joe.
~
Didn’t The Book show us that there are times when bunting is the correct call? All those definitive statement at the beginning of this post bother me.
There are a few times when bunting is the correct call. But, as Joe (in agreement with the Iphone app) says, those few times do not include the occasions when up or down more than
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I generally agree: I never want to see Jeter bunt. But I also think it’s worth considering that Jeter often does the whole “bunt for a hit, if it fails it’s a sacrifice” thing, and he may have been trying to catch the defense off-guard, since there were 2 strikes.
Speaking of which, I’ve never understood taking the bunt off with 2 strikes. Bunting is a bad decision
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In Cameron’s defense, he said it was a good idea to bunt up until there were 2 strikes.
pooh on Derek Jeter! http://tinyurl.com/ybg9vs4
I’m looking forward to the days when ‘The Captain’ puts a C on his jersey to remind people that he is a leader, ala Jason Veritek.
Jeter is a very, very good player who played on consistently terrific teams for his entire career. I’m not sure #10’s prediction that we’ll one day hold him in the same regard as Ruth will pan out, at least not outside of NYC
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Bunting is stupid, even when Jeter does it. http://bit.ly/zlmbW #jeterbunt
joe – entertaining as always. a little off base today, but still entertaining. hey, it’s impossible to get in to joe girardi’s or derek jeter’s heads. but my guess is girardi wasn’t thinking cap’n jeets is a great leader, will give himself up for the team, etc. my guess is girardi was thinking that jeter is a pretty good bunter and that, with mo rivera, one extra ... See all content
Lot of pent-up hatred of Belichick from a Cleveland fan and media member who thinks coaches owe him and his brethren all the time in the world when said media couldn’t be less useful to the coach’s actual purpose.
He unleashes his assistants on the world? Really? Like chemical weapons or Dr. Evil or what?
Good points on Jeter though.
Well, they’ll remember Ruth as long as the game is played.
On another note, how ironic is it that FanGraphs has now had 2 posts in the last 3 days (MGL’s epic post on bunting – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/were-the-yankee-sac-bunts-in-the-8th-inning-correct – and now Dave’s post) that directly contradict the automated message in their own app.
Fascinating. Do people write such articles about ANYONE in baseball other than Derek Jeter? I don’t think so. It’s amazing the lengths people will go to to tear down this man’s image. No, I’m not calling you a Hater, but that is a LOT of deep thinking about a single fouled-off bunt.
That said, I agree with much of what you wrote. I was shaking my head at the TV and
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If you only read one thing today let it be this. http://is.gd/4Itos Great treatise on what causation isn't.
A wonderful article (http://bit.ly/JVqJc), except for the fact that it's totally wrong. Thank goodness I played in the pre-Euclidean era.
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