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Climate change and Cumbria’s floods
Updated 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Source: http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/
Imagine, if you please, a kettle. The empirically-minded may wish to actually fetch one and 3/4 fill it with water. Examine the water in this imaginary (or actual, for the science geeks) kettle. It’s pretty much stationary. Now turn the kettle on and watch very carefully. You will quite quickly notice that the system becomes less predictable, less stable, more active and wilder, as the heat in the system increases.
If you increase the temperature far enough, your system will change ...
- 98 comments on this story
Showing 90 relevant reactions out of 98.
to be clear, i am a racist and nothingless, just incase there was doubt
PS
WTF is a “nothingless”?…you fuckin useless goon.
FFS use a spellcheck or learn to write…who wrote your show btw? D’you get funded by the dyslexia association?
“All the world’s a spoof and we are but sad little showbiz wannabes who desperately court any attention we can get.”
If you “spoof” me do I not shout “RACIST”?
If you prove I’m talking out of my arse, do I not shout “RACIST”?
If you point out I’m barely literate, do I not shout “RACIST”?
If
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yeah…whatever, no one is spoofing you, you’re doing it for attention.
Like I said, it was only a matter of time…
STOP SPOOFING ME!
yes, prison for all, including me! And i’m on in a show you know, i don’t know where or when…hang on, this is the show i’m in and you my audience! Yes, yes, yes! This is it, my show and if people stop coming here what am i but a shell? A nothingless…nothing left inside, leeches drain me dry, stick me with knives and keep watching my show here and now. And curious racist ... See all content
douglas clark,
Considering you haven’t bothered with one comment in 80 on this thread but now post two in an apparent dig, in an apparent extension of another dig from another thread, and just ten minutes after I post a comment, I think I just might have picked up a bitter thread stalker in you.
Least, that’s what it looks like to me….
It is both an interesting and perhaps bombproof excuse for saying anything whatsoever on the internet.
“It wasn’t me, m’lord, it was identity theft”
“case dismissed”
Putting words into others mouths should, perhaps, be punishable with a rather long custodial sentence. What do you think?
Curious Freedom et al,
I do not always agree with DHG, but if he has been the victim of identity theft, as he claims, you are arguing against a chimera.
So I will assume that Curious Freedom on here, saying:
What a nuttter!
has had their identity stripped too.
What a spectacle this DHG character really is! I suppose I shouldn’t really laugh at the mentally ill, but it is difficult with this one.
What a truly surreal experience it has been ‘brushing up’ against someone like DHG on this site
Can anyone tell me, have the “spoofed DHG” comments stopped since he started spoofing someone else?
What a nuttter!
“…otherwise what do i have?”
I have my show of course. Where would any of us be without shows?
Naturally, my show will be a huge success once everyone realises that, despite my inability to string a sentence together (see my appalling efforts above), develop a consistent argument, maintain any remote shred of credibility, I am actually a hugely talented entertainer
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its yours! Really it is cuz i’m confused as to who i am and have actually got my own facts wrong about my own life, which smarts but its better than living with my mum in darlington, who might b dead, i can’t tell. Things are tough but losing your shape is a whole new bag of cashews. Anyone still got my lemons? Seriously, i’m lonely&of little purpose but keep me close to your ... See all content
Chairman moo – you are Lord Christopher Monckton and I claim my £15.
I am too in a show.
In fact I was in it last night…and for all those people who said nobody would come well…hah!…Chris my case worker? Maureen from Greggs?…the guy who did the lights?…aren’t they people?…too right they bloody are matey…and they were at the show…in fact, Chris stayed right to the end…and we had a party…some
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If I ever end up on murder charges, I really hope that I face a jury of climate change “sceptics”… All my lawyer will have to say is “Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we all know that people die of natural causes all the time. The fact that my client was found at the scene with armed with a meat cleaver is entirely circumstantial. Statistically, it is obviously far more likely ... See all content
69. Pete Ridley
Thanks for that, but I do not agree with your theorys.
Firstly there is a difference between weather and climate.
“we do not know enough about climate processes and drivers to be able to predict climates”
We do know enough about climate to predict what it will be with considerable accuracy.
For the past 10 years climatologists
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Dan @70:
John Q: fair play to you. It would have been a shame to see you and Tim J not mend the quarrel as you both clearly know and care a lot about Africa
Bizarrely, neither of us seemed to know it about the other.
Over-commitment is not an excuse for crankiness but it is a reason; the last week has contained both management of a real ale festival and a (very late) high-intensity
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John Q: fair play to you. It would have been a shame to see you and Tim J not mend the quarrel as you both clearly know and care a lot about Africa.
I’ve learned a lot from reading John Q and Tim J on the subject of African economies here: it would be interesting to read both of you posting on this subject again. Not so sure about the ‘contributions’ from Chairman Moo, though…
Any of you who are using this month’s Cumbrian floods to support The (significant human-made global climate change) Hypothesis is either a scare monger or ignorant of climate history. Climate has always changed and there is no reason why it should stop doing so now. We are (or have been until 11 years ago) recovering from an ice age, but could well be heading into another. This is just a hypothesis ... See all content
And just to add that I’ve not really done much in life, hence why it’s easier to take shots at others who actually do stuff and have a life. I trick myself into thinking people will miss me and that’s why I lash out, I’m lonely I suppose and long for genuine human contact in my desperate flailing. I hope tomorrow brings a better day for all of us…
Can I just add that in case anyone is confused that I’m not actually in a show, just in case anyone wants to come because…well, I don’t get out much, preferring to stay in and mess about on the internet and I don’t actually have any tangible ability or personality, aside of course from living through other people, which is painful at times but as mother says: “keep your ... See all content
“DHG has not spoofed you yet but if you ask him nicely, he just might, unless of course he doesn’t give a hoot! Here’s hoping!”
Actually curious freedom..now I come to think about it, I wouldn’t bother asking DHG to spoof you. Useless twat has enough on his plate spoofing himself. How’s your show going btw? Mine’s coming along very nicely…it’s a little
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Hopefully this will arrive: thank you.
63 – duly accepted. It’s a subject that gets people very irate very quickly, and I certainly had no intention of offending you.
Thinks.
All right; Tim, I apologise. I jumped to a conclusion about your intent from the phrasing, and forgot that I’m not on an American newsgroup; that’s my over-sensitivity and not your fault.
Dan @61:
Tim is not, it seems, guilty of something I see a lot in the general blogging population. Namely, a tendency to talk shit about the Third World and particularly
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I didn’ t know you had a show Curious Freedom?
Is about black people being more criminally inclined than white folk and how Muslims are rapists? Sounds great!
Only kidding mate, although since the car crash I’ve not been the same, my hands withered up like Beadle’s and my hairline receaded to such a degree I had to turn to Regain.
My self-esteem was so low
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There isn’t a single comment here by Tim J that I can construe as ‘black people are stupid’ and it’s a disgrace for John Q Publican to suggest otherwise. Tim’s clearly not a racist, as his comments above make clear.
Saying that a society ‘over-relies’ on one form of activity does not imply racist contempt for the people in that society, FFS. People
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The fact that climate change isn’t about growing grapes in Devon or sunbathing in Aberdeen is already pretty well-known, isn’t it? I can see that you’re pointing out an example, but either you’re pointing out a banal example or you’re trying to make a wider point – I assumed the latter.
The Met Office believe yesterday was the wettest day on record in that
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I was quoting it with the expectation that I might at some point in this thread talk about the Sahel belt, and the ways that human activity have led to it growing (goats, wars, etc.) Instead I found myself having to defend the idea that black people aren’t stupid.
If you’ve found yourself defending this, it was not because of any such assertion from me. If you really think that it is
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It really isn’t a leap. Implying that subsistence farming is a choice is as insulting as implying that slum-dwellers are evil; it’s the Victorian fallacy of the Undeserving Poor. They have no choice. If they could be just farmers (i.e. technologically capable of growing more food than they need to survive) the ones I know would. The ones I konw, these days, are. Saying “over-reliance on” implies, specifically ... See all content
Rob @55:
Bah. The Cumbria floods prove nothing. You can’t generalise from a specific.
… o_0
The Cumbrian floods are a current-affairs hook; they’re a symptom. I’m not, in this article pitching the science behind global warming. You can tell because I’m not a scientist. I’m combating a heavily-propagandised public perception that global warming
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Which is one hell of a leap from my saying that ‘overreliance on subsistence farming’ was a contributory factor to famine in Africa. You can certainly argue that there isn’t much of a choice for most subsistence farmers. You can also argue that top-down attempts to change this have often been disastrous failures – look at Nyerere in Tanzania. But I don’t think that you can credibly argue that it isn’t ... See all content
Bah. The Cumbria floods prove nothing. You can’t generalise from a specific. The probability of such an event is not especially low, certainly not low enough to require climate change as an explanation (even factoring in the other recent flood events). Unity points out that the floods are consistent with climate change, but practically any slightly unusual weather would be consistent with climate ... See all content
What I found offensive was your condescension in suggesting that the four-year rain failure was caused by stupid people of colour who don’t know how to farm properly.
Which is one hell of a leap from my saying that ‘overreliance on subsistence farming’ was a contributory factor to famine in Africa. You can certainly argue that there isn’t much of a choice for most subsistence
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Well there you go.
Comprehensive proof, if any were really needed that DHG is as mad a fish.
Certifiable.
And that his claims of spoofing are clearly contrived rubbish from a man who clearly likes to spoof others.
Like I said, this DHG barmpot is doing it himself for reasons best know to a crazed mind, but moreover so he can get a plug in for his tax paid for show
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Don’t believe him…I never impersonated antbody
Oh…and…come and see my show. Plenty of tickets left. Pleassssse????
I’ve posted some reviews..
hmmmmm…? (Phillip French Observer)
has it finished yet? (the only other guy in the audience)
switch off the lights when your done will ya? (the caretaker)
No Curious freedom..it’s real..it must be.
My ‘vendetta’ against DHG started some years back when we were both patients in a secure mental health facility. We got on quite well at first but then, once he revealed his evil plan to undermine the British Left by attaching himself to a nominally left-liberal blog and posting increasingly bizarre and outlandish claims, I stopped
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Hmmm. Does anyone think that the comment at 45 purportedly by chairman moo just might have been spoofed?
Any prizes for guessing by whom?
Did I hear someone say “come and see my show?”
I agree with the analogy, it’s similar to one I use myself. I do wonder though how extreme weather events and more variable climate sit alongside a fairly boring trend in annual rainfall for the UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/hadukp.html
Surely total average annual rainfall should show a trend similar to the increase in energy in the system.
You think the argument that there should be a move away from pure subsistence farming to be offensive. Have you been to Mazabuka? A mixture of private and government money is encouraging the development of farms on a commercial basis. When there was a recent crop failure in the Zambezi valley area of Zambia, it was the good harvests from the new commercial farms that prevented a famine.
Good
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Let’s get beyond the fighting over whether or not Ghana is a decent country. I know it is, and don’t care much if you disagree since we clearly have different definitions of ‘good’ when it comes to politics.
Argh! My definitions of ‘bad’ governance was in reference to countries that were suffering from homicidal dictatorships. You surely don’t disagree that Mengistu, Amin
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Tim; point being that a Ghanaian nation which did not have any of the problems you are attributing as causal of the famine still had the famine, just like everyone who did have those problems. This implies that something happened that wasn’t dependent on local politics.
The economy was destroyed (largely by the collapse in global cocoa prices) by the mid 1970s – inflation was over 100%
yes;
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Can I just apologise to DHG and everyone else for spoiling this thread with my hateful, ignorant nonsense…things are tough at the mo and I am struggling to keep my head above water, hence the trolling and multiple identities and all that silliness.
It is easier for me to take it out on others than it is to face up to my own problems but I’m changing that as of today.
So
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@JQP – no problem, and of course you’re right that anecdotes don’t necessarily contain the whole truth. However, as we just have seen, it’s probably a good idea to establish *what the anecdote is about* before dismissing it out of hand.
I just don’t think who’s to blame matters; the data says the climate is changing and the science says the results will kill people. Who cares whether it’s an anthropogenic process? We still need to modify our species behaviour to survive it.
Who cares????
Well, the nature of the “modification” does rather depend on the answer to that, doesn’t it?
Incidentally – are you seriously suggesting that there was no significant unemployment in Ghana in the early 1980s? The economy was destroyed (largely by the collapse in global cocoa prices) by the mid 1970s – inflation was over 100%, the economy shrank substantially, something like 2 million Ghanaians fled the country.
Ah, you’re thinking of East Africa. Common mistake, assuming
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John Q. Publican: ‘No-one here in the political blogosphere (except possibly Craig Murray) seems to have any idea what the Third World is actually like; or if they do, I haven’t seen any of them writing about it.’
…Yes, or except possibly Conor Foley, who has spent years of his life working in countries like Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, and who writes a great deal about these
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37 – if you are writing specifically about the famine in Ghana in the early 1980s, may I suggest that you write “the famine in Ghana” rather than “the African famines of the 1980s” which, whatever your personal experiences may have been, were very much more a feature of East and Central Africa than they were of West Africa.
The limitation of the entirety of African
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John Q. Publican [37]
“Bizarrely, I am not sold on the idea that our current climate shift is more than accelerated by human activity. I just don’t think who’s to blame matters”.
Who is to blame does not matter – what is to blame does matter, otherwise we can’t hope to sort it.
“Who cares whether it’s an anthropogenic process?”
I
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s/19971/1971/ oops.
Saul Glasman @27:
You’re right, entropy does have a specific meaning in mathematics; had I been writing an article about the process used to generate asymmetric encryption keys in PGP, then it would have been clear from context that I was using the mathematical term. The term is also technical in several other fields, however.
I got a lot of the main point of this article from
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[...] in knowledge about why a lot of people talk utter bollocks about climate change, while some other people talk comparative [...]
Trofim, Extreme weather events are always part of the scenery.
Increasing incidence of extreme weather events is consistent with AGW theory.
Evidence of such an increase is here:
http://greenerblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/cumbrian-floods-global-warming.html
Richard @ 34:
And would such extreme weather events as the great north sea flood of 1953 be consistent with AGW theory? Or was that just a one-off?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953
Extreme weather events, of which Cumbria is one example, are consistent with AGW theory.
@31 – AFAICT, John Q Publican was there. Were you?
Very good article.
I can add to [28] David’s comments re ” ‘global temperature has NOT increased for the past 10 years’ ”
Accurate records of global CO2 levels temperature change have been recorded going back 50 million years using ice core data. There have been many changes as CO2 has risen and fallen. At every stage, global temperature and sea level
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30 – do you have anything at all that engages with this argument? That droughts do not “cause” famines? That the economies of Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea (for example) might be a tiny bit more complicated than ‘bad weather’? Or just usual aimless sniping?
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by libcon: :: Climate change and Cumbria’s floods http://bit.ly/7TL4qW…
Climate change, Cumbria?s floods and the Second Law of Thermo-Dynamics. #green http://bit.ly/6BXN7D
And for his next trick, Tim J will tell JQP the African sky was green.
I lived through the African famines of the early 80s, which happened because all the local farmers failed to predict a sudden drought. Which lasted 5 years.
They really didn’t you know. They happened because of over-stocking, over-reliance on subsistence agriculture, over-population in rural areas, urban unemployment, the absence of property ownership (destroying any incentive to improve
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Roger Clague:
> However the average global temperature has NOT increased for the past 10 years.
1. 2005 hottest year on record – NASA
2. 90% of the excess heat due to higher GHG levels has gone into the oceans, 7% in to melting snow and ice and just 3% into warming the atmosphere
3. 2009 record ocean temperature – NOAA
4. The 10 warmest years
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I don’t wish to comment on the validity of the thrust of the main post, but I have a problem with the use of the word “entropy” in your metaphor. “Entropy”, a term with a very precise mathematical definition, is frequently taken out of context and used to mean “disorder”, and a naive reading of the second law of thermodynamics as “disorder always increases” ... See all content
RT @greenforyou: Climate change, Cumbria?s floods and the Second Law of Thermo-Dynamics. #green http://bit.ly/6BXN7D
RT @greenforyou: Climate change, Cumbria?s floods and the Second Law of Thermo-Dynamics. #green http://bit.ly/6BXN7D
RT @greenforyou: Climate change, Cumbria?s floods and the Second Law of Thermo-Dynamics. #green http://bit.ly/6BXN7D
RT @greenforyou: Climate change, Cumbria?s floods and the Second Law of Thermo-Dynamics. #green http://bit.ly/6BXN7D
Whoops…shoulda been..
“You don’t speak POLISH and have little to offer other than waving around your spaghetti arms and pulling faces.”
Curious Freedom
I agree. He’s a complete fruit loop. But you’ve got to understand why they keep him around: because when their bluff gets called and their “oh so worthy”, identity/ diversity “we
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I agree with pretty much all chairman moo has to say here even if he doesn’t agree with what I have to say.
This barmpot DHG character has taken to calling me names like ‘sentnel’ on another thread for some bizarre reason and has even accused me of spoofing him and other assorted mental stuff when the truth is that this is the first time I have ever come across this demented fool.
In
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Climate change = inevitable “it’s a scientific fact…all the mathematical models say so”
While models certainly have an important part to play in climate science the idea that AGW is real does not depend on them.
Stepney,
Of course climate changes naturally over time, no one is disputing that. But drastic changes usually occur (notwithstanding sudden triggers such as asteroid impacts) over what in human terms are very long periods of time. The notion of “stability” depends entirely on what timescale you are looking at. We may well have another ice age in tens of thousands of years time
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“come and see Poles Apart and talk about your problem with me face to face but you won’t do that will you?”
OK you gonna send me a ticket…I’d bite my own fuckin arm off before I paid to see you.
Actually..I’ll take that back..
I’d pay to see you walk into a building site canteen and tell a bunch of guys who’d had their money slashed
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No doubt upsets you multiple identity troll coward that someone actually doesn’t like such underhand and cowardly behaviour but I tell you what pal, come and see Poles Apart and talk about your problem with me face to face but you won’t do that will you?
Coward.
[19] I’m talking about someone who uses the name DHG to post – but who is not who he claims to be.
18 seems to be directed at myself because the original 18 (the creepy DHG imposter) was deleted by the blog administrator.
I’m sorry if this is all starting to sound like an episode of ‘The Prisoner’ – my comments are not aimed at anybody other than
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the a&e charge nurse
Would that be the “someone’s impersonating me” story? Just how would that happen and why? The guy’s beyond parody as it is. I think you’ll find that, having gone way beyond the bounds of sanity, taste or legality, he decided to invent an “it wasn’t me..it was someone who impersonated me” story rather than admit he’d
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[18] I find your vendetta against DHG rather unpleasant – can you please go back to your job as toll booth operator, or whatever it is you do when you are not concocting tedious and repetitive posts with the sole aim of illustrating how sad you are.
Ta.
Zarathustra has it down, something that multiple fake identities troll-git struggles with.
Bless.
Climate change = inevitable “it’s a scientific fact…all the mathematical models say so” by the authoritarian ‘liberal’ moralisers who wouldn’t know a differential equation if it bit them on their well-padded arses.
Climate change denial = creationism for people who think they’re too clever to believe in silly things like creationism.
#It means that the system, as it gets warmer, gets less predictable.#
Aside from the question of whether or not global temperatures have risen, if the effects are less predictable then surely the predictions of global catastrophe become less ‘certain’.
Seems the new message is “Temperature’s are rising and making things less predictable and one of the unexpected
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Horsesh*t. One weather event, two weather events – there is nothing to suggest an increase. It’s weather. We live on an Atlantic storm track
Any fule kno that.
Weather. Climate. There’s a difference. Get a dictionary.
Just a point to ponder: given that the climate by its very nature changes over time, what is the point of trying to maintain stability? Any
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Ignore Kojak John, he thinks Obama is Somalian…and as for pagar…
Pagar @10:
Wut?
“If you raise the pressure inside a closed container you can push a lever along. If you’re really clever you can do this repeatedly.”
I’m not a climate-change expert. I am capable of understanding both analogy and illustration as debate techniques. On which of these did I lose you?
On the other hand, a cup of tea sounds perfect
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John
The internet has a tendency to make a lot of us experts on a lot of subjects.
While you’ve got your kettle out, perhaps you could explain to me how a steam engine works. Or perhaps make me a cup of tea.
Yes, that would be nice.
Kojak at 8:
An interesting, if entirely unsubstantiated opinion. Care to back it up with anything specific enough to be called a debate, or is this the beginning of the straight-up ad hominem portion of the thread?
I’ll be impressed, tbh, if anyone can break down what I’ve said here because there are only two parts to the point and neither is in dispute; 1. systems which
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John Q Publican,
Nice to see it’s not only “Those damyankee librul’s … talking out their asses”.
The article was well worthy of Jim Royale’s catchphrase.
MarkM @6: since the periodicity of climate peaks and troughs operates on a scale of millions of years I don’t honestly find 50 years between peak rainfall figures that significant.
Rainfall “like this” oftener… Well. 1996 and the easter floods on the Thames spring to mind, but also the floods in Boscastle, the 2005 and 2007 floodings; all of these were triggered by
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http://bit.ly/7TL4qW Not sure about this at all. Sounds like the flip side of 'it was cold today, therefore climate change is bollocks'.
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